The first true scare for the system
So the first true scare for the system is taking place today - the Chicago White Sox in a game 6 against Seattle
They have lost 5 straight and are pretty decent size underdogs today at +150.
This may be a good time to recap how the system works, in case you are new here or if you end up wanting to do this next year. Going into how the plays are selected would take a lot longer then I want, but just know there is a guy named RyHenry09 over at cappersmall that has done some incredible research. 238-0 speaks for itself. I have been following this guy for a few years now, and this is not a fluke.
So anyway, the system shows the White Sox as a play to win on their 6 game road trip. We want to win one unit or bet size total from the 6 game series. White Sox win a game during their trip, we win a bet size or unit. There have been 241 of these “trips or plays” so far this year, and we have banked on 238 of the series with 3 more pending.
For simplicity sake, I will make the unit size $10, so we can see how the money works instead of units. $$$’s are something we all understand better then units. With this in mind, our goal is to win $10 on every series we play, including this White Sox series.
So this is how the betting works and how you can have some scares:
Game 1 - Oakland vs White Sox
+100 line for Chicago - we bet $10 to win $10 - White Sox lose
Game 2 - Oakland vs White Sox
+100 line for Chicago - we must bet enough to win $10 plus recoup the $10 we lost in game 1. In this case we need to bet enough to win $20.
We bet $20 to win $20 - White Sox lose
Game 3 - Oakland vs White Sox
+125 line for Chicago - this is good and bad news - good news is it costs us less to cover all our loses and get our profit - bad news is that we are decent size underdogs - we must bet enough to win $10 for our profit plus recoup the $10 we loss on game 1 and the $20 we lost on game 2 - we need to win $40
We bet $32 to win $40 - White Sox Lose
Game 4 - Seattle vs White Sox
+145 line for Chicago - again this lowers our bet size and loss but we are even bigger dogs then yesterday. Have to win $10 for our profit plus $62 from the previous 3 day losses (32+20+10)
We bet $50 to win $72 - White Sox Lose
Game 5 - Seattle vs White Sox
+150 line for Chicago - same good and bad news - have to bet enough to win 10 for our profit plus enough to recoup previous days losses (50+32+20+10) = $122
We bet $81 to win $122 - White Sox Lose
Game 6 - Today - Seattle vs White Sox - last game of the series
+150 line for Chicago - same good news/bad news situation, mostly bad though as there is no tomorrow. Now have to win 81+50+32+20+10+10 = $203 to make our profit. Our bet now has to be $136 to win $203.
If Chicago wins, then we win back every thing we lost plus $10. If Chicago loses, we have just lost 136+81+50+32+20+10+10 = $339
If you are first looking at this, this may sound like the stupidest system ever. A lot of risk for minor reward. This White Sox series has been the exception, not the norm. In fact, playing $10 unit sizes on this system so far would have netted you $2,380 this year, so a $350 loss should not be the end of the world, as you should have $2K still in profit. I expected 2 losses this year, and expected profit of about 150 units. Up 2k betting $10 a game without much thought is pretty damn good in my book.
This situation with the White Sox is pretty tame though compared to some things that could happen. Like make that game 5 a -200 line instead of +150, and then a game 6 line of +100. Instead of betting 81 to win 122, we would have to bet 244 to win the 122. Then game 6 makes the bet size close to $400. And if that lost, then you are looking at a loss of over $750. With the same profit for the series, $10.
So, if you are still thinking about starting this or when you consider something like this in the future, here are your tips:
Take what ever you can afford to lose and make a rule not to touch it, and divide that by 150. That number should be your unit size. I played it pretty small this year and set aside $750, which made my unit size $5. I am up almost $1200 at the current time for this system. Stick to the system. Don’t raise your stakes unless you have the 150 units behind it or if you cannot resist taking money out of the units you have won. If the dollar amount is too uncomfortable with you on the last game of the series, you are betting over your bankroll which is never a good thing. Up $2400, a $136 bet should not be a big deal, or a $300 loss on the series.
