MLB Baseball Road System

So the first true scare for the system is taking place today - the Chicago White Sox in a game 6 against Seattle

They have lost 5 straight and are pretty decent size underdogs today at +150.

This may be a good time to recap how the system works, in case you are new here or if you end up wanting to do this next year.  Going into how the plays are selected would take a lot longer then I want, but just know there is a guy named RyHenry09 over at cappersmall that has done some incredible research.  238-0 speaks for itself.  I have been following this guy for a few years now, and this is not a fluke.

So anyway, the system shows the White Sox as a play to win on their 6 game road trip.  We want to win one unit or bet size total from the 6 game series.  White Sox win a game during their trip, we win a bet size or unit.  There have been 241 of these “trips or plays” so far this year, and we have banked on 238 of the series with 3 more pending.

For simplicity sake, I will make the unit size $10, so we can see how the money works instead of units.  $$$’s are something we all understand better then units.  With this in mind, our goal is to win $10 on every series we play, including this White Sox series.

So this is how the betting works and how you can have some scares:

Game 1 - Oakland vs White Sox
+100 line for Chicago - we bet $10 to win $10 - White Sox lose

Game 2 - Oakland vs White Sox
+100 line for Chicago - we must bet enough to win $10 plus recoup the $10 we lost in game 1.  In this case we need to bet enough to win $20.
We bet $20 to win $20 - White Sox lose

Game 3 - Oakland vs White Sox
+125 line for Chicago - this is good and bad news - good news is it costs us less to cover all our loses and get our profit - bad news is that we are decent size underdogs - we must bet enough to win $10 for our profit plus recoup the $10 we loss on game 1 and the $20 we lost on game 2 - we need to win $40
We bet $32 to win $40 - White Sox Lose

Game 4 - Seattle vs White Sox
+145 line for Chicago - again this lowers our bet size and loss but we are even bigger dogs then yesterday.  Have to win $10 for our profit plus $62 from the previous 3 day losses (32+20+10)
We bet $50 to win $72 - White Sox Lose

Game 5 - Seattle vs White Sox
+150 line for Chicago - same good and bad news - have to bet enough to win 10 for our profit plus enough to recoup previous days losses (50+32+20+10) = $122
We bet $81 to win $122 - White Sox Lose

Game 6 - Today - Seattle vs White Sox - last game of the series
+150 line for Chicago - same good news/bad news situation, mostly bad though as there is no tomorrow.  Now have to win 81+50+32+20+10+10 = $203 to make our profit.  Our bet now has to be $136 to win $203.

If Chicago wins, then we win back every thing we lost plus $10.  If Chicago loses, we have just lost 136+81+50+32+20+10+10 = $339

If you are first looking at this, this may sound like the stupidest system ever.  A lot of risk for minor reward.  This White Sox series has been the exception, not the norm.  In fact, playing $10 unit sizes on this system so far would have netted you $2,380 this year, so a $350 loss should not be the end of the world, as you should have $2K still in profit.  I expected 2 losses this year, and expected profit of about 150 units.  Up 2k betting $10 a game without much thought is pretty damn good in my book.

This situation with the White Sox is pretty tame though compared to some things that could happen. Like make that game 5 a -200 line instead of +150, and then a game 6 line of +100.  Instead of betting 81 to win 122, we would have to bet 244 to win the 122.  Then game 6 makes the bet size close to $400.  And if that lost, then you are looking at a loss of over $750.  With the same profit for the series, $10.

So, if you are still thinking about starting this or when you consider something like this in the future, here are your tips:

Take what ever you can afford to lose and make a rule not to touch it, and divide that by 150.  That number should be your unit size.  I played it pretty small this year and set aside $750, which made my unit size $5.   I am up almost $1200 at the current time for this system.  Stick to the system.  Don’t raise your stakes unless you have the 150 units behind it or if you cannot resist taking money out of the units you have won.  If the dollar amount is too uncomfortable with you on the last game of the series, you are betting over your bankroll which is never a good thing.  Up $2400, a $136 bet should not be a big deal, or a $300 loss on the series.

Just a friendly reminder that 7 series plays start today.  The system record is 80-0.  For those of you who are new to this or are thinking about this, here is what I suggest:

• Determine if you have at least $750 that you are willing to invest.  This is 150 units or 150 $5 bet sizes used solely for this system.  This is the minimum bet size at most sportsbooks.
• If you don’t have a sportsbook, select one from the right hand side column.
•  Bet each of the plays below to win 1 bet size.  For my example it is $5.
• If the play is a winner, then you are done with that series and you have won 1 unit.
• If the play is a loser, then you bet the same team tomorrow, only this time you need to bet enough to win 1 unit + what you lost on game 1.
• Repeat the two steps above.
• Following the system above and using the $5 bet size, you would be up $400 right now.  The season is only a month and a half old.
• If you have questions, leave a comment and I will answer them

San Francisco Giants Game 1

Chicago White Sox Game 1

Los Angles Dodgers Game 1

Cincinnati Reds Game 1

Arizona Diamondbacks Game 1

Washington Nationals / Cincinnati Reds UNDER game 1

Chicago White Sox / Oakland A’s UNDER game 1

Just a little helper as to how this works again. We are betting to win one unit on each series. So today we need to bet enough to win 1 unit bet plus whatever we lost on Monday to profit one unit.

Lets take a look at the easy one. Lets assume that you are a $5 a unit player for this system. The Rockies were an underdog yesterday, so at worst we lost $5. Today they are an underdog again (+116 right now). So we need enough to bet to win $5 for our 1 unit profit and we add our 5 dollar loss from last night to it for a total of $10 needed to win. Since they are an +116 underdog, we will only need to wager 8.62 to win our $10. Don’t worry about the math, all you need to do is know how much you need to win to get one unit profit out of the series. Every site I have been to has a “to win” bet option.

Now lets look at the harder one, the Padres. If you are a $5 a unit player, you would have bet 13.25 to win 5 on the Padres yesterday as they were a pretty big favorite. Today, we need to bet to win 18.25, or one unit plus are losses on Monday’s game. They are a pretty big favorite right now at -156, so we will have to bet 28.50 to make our 1 unit profit on the series.

Now, lets say the Padres lose again tonight. We would need to bet enough to win one unit plus our losses on Monday plus are losses on Tuesday (5+18.25+28.50=~$52). While you have already added in the loss from Monday’s game, you still need to add it again because you lost it again.

This is a good example of why you need to set aside about 150 units for this system, which is recommended at this handicapping site. Here we are in game 2 of the series and we are already betting almost 6 units, and assuming that the Padres would be similar favorites for game 3 we would be up around a bet size of 15 units.

I will discuss the system a little more in detail soon.